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National CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI)·Q2 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 revenue and adjusted OIBDA materially beat company guidance: revenue $54.7M vs $49.5–$51.5 guided; adjusted OIBDA $7.6M vs $3.5–$4.5 guided. The beat was driven by higher utilization (+27% impressions per attendee), pricing (+5% CPMs), record platinum sales, and growing programmatic/self-serve channels .
  • YoY declines reflect strike-driven box office and attendance headwinds: NCM LLC revenue down 15% YoY (attendance -31%, box office -27%), but monetization outperformed with total advertising revenue per attendee at $0.56 (highest Q2 since 2017) and national revenue per attendee at $0.45 (highest Q2 since 2016) .
  • Q3 2024 guidance: revenue $56–$58M and adjusted OIBDA $6–$8M, implying continued monetization strength against a lower slate count vs prior year; management highlighted accelerating box office momentum (e.g., Deadpool & Wolverine) and a robust H2 slate into 2025 .
  • Strategic catalysts: 44 unique programmatic advertisers, 44 unique self-serve advertisers (orders +157% QoQ; sales +141% QoQ), integration of NCM’s audience data into Nielsen AMRLD, and active $100M buyback program with 2.1M shares repurchased at ~$4.78 average to date .
  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) was unavailable at time of analysis; estimate comparisons could not be retrieved due to API limits. Where comparisons to estimates are needed, we note unavailability and anchor to company guidance and actuals [GetEstimates error].

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Utilization and monetization: impressions sold per attendee +27% YoY; national CPMs +5% YoY; total advertising revenue per attendee reached $0.56, the highest Q2 since 2017. “Advertising revenue per attendee reached $0.56...highest second quarter since 2017.” .
  • Platinum performance and category expansion: second-best quarter ever for platinum (sales >15x YoY), with strong growth in tech (>6x), insurance (+89%), government (+84%). “Second quarter...second-best quarter ever for our platinum advertising offering…sales up more than 15x vs Q2 2023.” .
  • Programmatic/self-serve scaling: 44 unique programmatic advertisers; June the highest-grossing month since launch; self-serve 44 unique advertisers with orders +157% QoQ and sales +141% QoQ. “44 unique advertisers across our on-screen and in-lobby programmatic offerings…self-serve orders up 157% QoQ, sales up 141% QoQ.” .

What Went Wrong

  • Attendance and box office headwinds: domestic box office down 27% YoY; attendance down 31% YoY, pressured revenue and adjusted OIBDA vs prior year despite monetization gains .
  • Local/regional revenue weakness: $9.8M vs $13.4M prior year on lower attendance; beverage revenue fell to $3.2M due to Regal ESA termination and lower attendance among remaining ESA parties .
  • Adjusted OIBDA margin compressed: Q2 adjusted OIBDA margin 13.9% vs 19.4% prior year on lower revenue; operating loss increased to $(9.3)M (NCM LLC) .

Financial Results

Core P&L (NCM LLC comparables and consolidated EPS)

MetricQ2 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024
NCM LLC Total Revenue ($M)$64.4 $34.8 (Total advertising excl. beverage) $54.7
NCM LLC Adjusted OIBDA ($M)$12.5 $(5.7) $7.6
NCM LLC Adjusted OIBDA Margin (%)19.4% (15.2%) 13.9%
Consolidated Diluted EPS ($)$31.33 $(0.36) $(0.09)

Segment Revenue

Segment ($M)Q2 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024
National Advertising$44.3 $29.5 $41.7
Local & Regional Advertising$13.4 $5.3 $9.8
ESA Beverage Agreements$6.7 $2.6 $3.2

KPIs and Utilization

KPIQ1 2024Q2 2024
Total Advertising Revenue per Attendee ($)$0.459 $0.56
Total Revenue per Attendee ($)$0.493 N/A disclosed for total; monetization commentary provided
National Revenue per Attendee ($)$0.389 $0.45
Local Revenue per Attendee ($)$0.070 $0.11
Impressions Sold per Attendee (YoY)+62% (national utilization) +27%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent Guidance/ActualChange
Revenue ($M)Q2 2024$49.5–$51.5 Actual: $54.7 Beat
Adjusted OIBDA ($M)Q2 2024$3.5–$4.5 Actual: $7.6 Beat
Revenue ($M)Q3 2024N/AGuidance: $56–$58 New
Adjusted OIBDA ($M)Q3 2024N/AGuidance: $6–$8 New

Notes:

  • Management reiterated H2 tailwinds (Deadpool & Wolverine strength; upcoming Joker 2, LOTR prequel, Mufasa, Gladiator II) and box office normalization into 2025 .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ4 2023 (Q-2)Q1 2024 (Q-1)Q2 2024 (Current)Trend
Utilization & PricingPricing +14% vs 2019; utilization +16% vs 2019; record revenue per attendee Utilization +62% YoY; revenue per attendee 95% of 2019 Utilization +27% YoY; CPMs +5% YoY; national revenue/attendee $0.45 Strengthening monetization vs attendance headwinds
ProgrammaticBeta completed; strategy to broaden pool Official on-screen launch in Feb; 15 advertisers; 9-pipeline 44 advertisers; highest-grossing month in June; first programmatic guaranteed deal Scaling rapidly
Self-ServeTesting begun Positive results; expanding formats 44 advertisers; orders +157% QoQ; sales +141% QoQ Accelerating
Measurement/Attention (NCMx)Lumen & Adelaide attention guarantees; cinema tops attention Emphasis on NCMx data platform, business guarantees NCMx Boomerang QR, retargeting; Nielsen AMRLD integration Capability expansion
Box Office/MacroStrike delays depressed attendance; consumer demand strong Strong Q1 titles; strikes impacted slate Box office sequentially improved; strong June; H2 slate momentum Recovering into H2 and 2025
Capital AllocationLaunch $100M buyback program Initiated repurchases: 649k shares at ~$$5 avg Repurchased ~2.1M shares for $9.8M at ~$4.78 avg Ongoing buybacks

Management Commentary

  • “Advertising revenue per attendee reached $0.56, marking the highest second quarter…since 2017…NCM’s platform continues to outperform the box office recovery.” – CEO Tom Lesinski .
  • “National revenue per attendee of $0.45 was the highest second quarter…since 2016…utilization up 27% YoY while slightly increasing pricing.” – CFO Ronnie Ng .
  • “Second-best quarter ever for our platinum advertising offering…sales up more than 15x compared to Q2 2023.” – CEO Tom Lesinski .
  • “Interest in our on-screen programmatic offering surged…June was our highest grossing month since launching in February, including our largest deal to date and our first programmatic guaranteed deal.” – CEO Tom Lesinski .
  • “We have repurchased nearly 2.1M shares for $9.8M at an average share price of $4.78…we plan to continue opportunistically repurchasing shares over the next 3 years.” – CFO Ronnie Ng .

Q&A Highlights

  • Self-serve/programmatic cadence: Both allow inventory purchases closer to airtime, improving efficiency; management prioritizing resources to these channels; specific revenue metrics to be shared in future quarters .
  • Upfront negotiations: In progress and slower than typical; specifics to be provided next quarter; competitive positioning emphasized .
  • Monetization drivers: Better execution and inventory management driving impressions per attendee (+27% YoY), not solely pricing (+5% YoY) .
  • Audience/arrival patterns: 18–34 core demo consistency with strong ratings; post-showtime and platinum placements have increased ad viewership; arrival times consistent over 2–4 years .
  • Q2 upside drivers despite weak attendance: Higher utilization, record platinum sales, modest pricing increases, incremental programmatic, diversified advertiser base .
  • Political cycle impact: Local avails likely to sell out in swing states; NCM expects to benefit by capturing displaced advertiser demand (without running political ads) .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus estimates (S&P Global/Capital IQ) for Q2 2024 EPS and revenue were unavailable due to API request limits; therefore, we compare actuals to company-issued guidance rather than consensus. If needed, we can revisit when S&P Global access is restored. Values would be retrieved from S&P Global if available.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Execution over attendance: NCM monetization levers (utilization, platinum, programmatic/self-serve) are mitigating slate-driven attendance volatility, evidenced by beats vs guidance and record per-attendee metrics .
  • Near-term setup: Q3 guide embeds lower slate vs tough Barbenheimer comp; monetization trend and pipeline (programmatic/self-serve) support revenue/OIBDA trajectory even before box office normalization .
  • Category breadth: Government (17% of spend), travel (~16%), auto (13% of national) and emerging tech/pharma/CPG prove mix resiliency into potential macro uncertainty .
  • Buyback support: Active repurchases at <$5/share signal management confidence and provide downside support, funded by operating distributions over a 3-year window .
  • Data/measurement moat: NCMx advancements and Nielsen AMRLD integration strengthen attribution and cross-media comparability, improving advertiser ROI and potentially driving budget share gains .
  • Watch slate normalization: As attendance recovers into H2’24/2025 (e.g., Joker 2, Gladiator II, Avatar 3), operating leverage should expand given low capex and OIBDA-to-FCF conversion history .
  • Risk checks: Continued strike aftershocks to slate, local/regional softness, and reliance on upfront/scatter pacing remain variables; management flagged the slower upfront timing this year .

Appendices

Additional Q2 Contextual Data Points

  • Box office sequential improvement: April→May +28%, May→June +75%; June ~$1B, best month YTD .
  • Demographics: Gen Z/millennials were ~70% of viewership; Gen Z weekly rating 5.9, 3x NBA Finals and 10x Stanley Cup Finals ratings; 18–34 weekly rating 5.0 ~2x prime time streaming averages .
  • Category shares: Government 17% of total NCM ad spend; travel ~16%; auto 13% of national spend .
  • Balance sheet: Cash/cash equivalents/restricted cash/marketable securities $56.8M (Q2); total debt $10M .

Cross-reference Notes

  • Non-GAAP: Adjusted OIBDA excludes D&A, share-based comp, workforce reorg, satellite transition, Cineworld/Chapter 11-related fees; reconciliations provided in 8-K/press release .
  • Q2 vs prior-year comparability: Management emphasizes NCM LLC operating results for YoY compares due to prior-year deconsolidation effects; EPS in prior year reflects unusual gains .